Majority especially from 2015 the year China LI prime

Majority of the GDP was contribute by
Agriculture, and but actually almost 60% of Pakistan territory is Mountainous
area, that mean Pakistan actually is a place full of ore resources, but
Pakistan do not utilize their resources accuracy.

According to the graph above, it display
that majority of Pakistan population pursue agriculture. Pakistan had about
200million of population, tend to be a labor intensive economy. After 2000
Pakistan’s GDP had increase sharply, so what is the reason, help GDP increase so
fast, we knew that Pakistan and China build friendly diplomacy relationship, so
the growth of Pakistan economic had largely influence by cooperate with China, especially
from 2015 the year China LI prime minister signed China–Pakistan Economic
Corridor display the strong friendship between two country, this project had
cover many aspect, for instance, energy development, infrastructure,  resources exploit, traffic between China and
Pakistan, also concern sea area. The well building of economic condition had
emerge, China provide technique, capital enterprise, Pakistan provide: land,
labor. To build up success production. So from we can found that the rural area
population gradually decrease, because the project: China–Pakistan Economic
Corridor had provide employment opportunity to Pakistan, both increase
aggregate supply and aggregate demand.

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Due to economic of Pakistan, so we can
estimate that live standard increase by economic growth, so from inflation of
Pakistan increase, among 2004 to 2009 occur a high inflation rate, the highest
had reach 25%, so economic growth drive inflation, high inflation will damage
economic, so after 2009 inflation rate finally dramatically decrease to 5%. But
also factor to increase inflation is the war from 2002 among middle east had
increase the inflation rate of Pakistan. Also because inflation exchange rate
of Pakistan continue to increase from 2000, in 2016 1 dollar can exchange to
106 PKR(Pakistan rupee). But in conclusion the economic condition of Pakistan
was changing, due to cooperation with China, Pakistan introduced many
industrial technique, to increase standard of living of a country, also drive
the employment rate increase, utilize resources, but the subject of economic
still is agriculture, a developing country should transition to industrial, and
decrease country’s rely on agriculture. Pakistan is a country full of ore
resources, but the resources do not apply to country’s growth.


Government policy:

Government domestic policy:

Develop secondary and territory industry,
During 2001 to 2016 Pakistan’s prime minister had raised the importance of
secondary and territory industry, encourage people to participate in develop
it. In order to become a development country, Pakistan should increase the
proportion of secondary and territory industry in the market, because the
contribute of primary industry is limit, the profit of primary industry was
low, if the private profit is low, economic cannot growth quick, so government
should increase the proportion of secondary and territory industry, in order to
promote economic growth.


Discount rate of central bank has improved
by 1.5 percentage points in order to deal with high rate of inflation in
Pakistan. once Pakistan inflation rate increase, government should put down
increasing, the change of discount rate was indirectly change interest rate, to
increase the discount rate so that the company and commercial won’t loan more,
because they need to pay more money, in order to halt inflation, people will
not spend more money, in order to decrease aggregate demand, so the price will
relatively decrease. This action was monetary policy.


Cooperate with China: China is the leader
of developing country, and the fastest economic growth in the world nowadays,
so China can give help to many developing country in order to help their
economic, from many chairman and prime minister of China, Pakistan often built
a good relationship with China, so China also gave many help to Pakistan to
help the development, especially the technology and capital also money support
to Pakistan, help Pakistan to build a system that can expand future. The policy
of diplomacy brought employment rate to Pakistan, because China made job for
them, and also provide capital for Pakistan to instead Pakistan old machine,
help to increase the productivity for Pakistan, recently China carry out “the
Belt and Road (B&R)” also benefit Pakistan. But Pakistan cannot
overdependence the foreign power’s help, because overdependence will cause
Pakistan hard to develop without other, because lack of experience to do that.


Loan to EU of 710million Euro, during
2003-2005, in order to develop education and training. That investment of
Pakistan directly increase the ability of citizen, it can help people get rid
of low skill job, people cannot chose their job, get rid of agriculture,
training and education of a country determine a country’s progress.



Forecast of Pakistan of future 3 years macroeconomic

Nowadays in Pakistan economic developing,
the first thing will gradually occur, that is industrialization, because within
the help of China in the Belt and Road (B), Pakistan will introduce more
capital, machine to achieve production industrialization, if a country want to
develop first should get rid of the dependency of primary industry and get
close to secondary industry and territory industry, but among future three
years, Pakistan cannot develop territory industry without enough economic
strength, so industrialization will fist occur, to achieve the government aim economic
growth quickly, like China. So Pakistan should introduce many manufacture
company to domestic. The biggest cost brought to Pakistan should be externality
cost, while developing industry, environment will damage a lot, so economic
growth must bring harmful effect to Pakistan. But three years development
Pakistan won’t care about the externality if the problem not enough big.

Resources will largely exploit by
government of private, produce factor–land will consume plenty. Because a
developing country need large amount of resources to support economic growth. China
and Pakistan will together to exploit the energy.

China and Pakistan will together to build
up a complete traffic system, to provide traffic to local people, in order to
achieve labor mobility, to lead rural people rush to urban provide enough labor
for secondary industry, the future three urban labor population may hold 50% of
country population or more. But the unemployment rate may increase because
rural labor lack of education and training, so they are not specialize in the
job. But the inflation rate will relatively decrease because of unemployment
rate increase, price level will decrease.

Future three year, the export of Pakistan
will increase because new technology give opportunity to Pakistan to increase
their productivity.



Personal client advise:

As a adviser of Healthcare in Pakistan, as
a territory industry, and necessary for a country, healthcare must has subsidy
from government, our aim are not in private cost and private benefit, we should
focus on social benefit and social cost, we should know that how to increase a
country health standard. Pakistan do not has advanced technology or equipment
for us to develop, and during turmoil of terrorist, many people injured and
many hospital cannot afford to many patient. So I advise that through the Belt
and Road (B&R) cooperate with China, introduce new facility to Pakistan,
then send people to China for training, they should know how to use new
facility and advanced knowledge. After they come back they can train others. Open
training class to local hospital, because many nurses lack of training and do
not have medicine knowledge, so training can help them to be more specialize,
also training can provide more job to the country, training people can help
country to develop territory industry.

Decrease the price that majority people can
afford the price of cure.